31 At Bats
A friend and I were talking baseball last night, and the subject of Milwaulkee SS/3B/CF Bill Hall came up. I, being a fan of Hall's, made the comment that not too many players can play shortstop and hit you 35 home runs. The 26 year-old's power has trended up every year, with his 2006 campaign serving as a full-fledged breakout after being given consistent playing time.
My friend responded with skepticism, saying "not this year." I inquired as to why he thought Hall was not capable of 35 home runs, and he said "look at his numbers so far. It doesn't look like he's going to hit more than 25."
It's true that Hall is off to a rough start...in his first 31 at bats. He hit his 35 home runs last year in 537 at bats with a batting line of .270/.345/.553, meaning despite the one home run and .194/.286/.387 line so far this year, he still has over 500 at bats to go. Then when you consider that he started the year 5-17 with a home run and two double, his slow start can essentially be attributed to a 1-14 slump in his last 5 games. Over the course of last season, Bill Hall had three slumps worse than the 1-for-14 drought he's in right now, and a handful of 1-for-11 type slumps mixed in. Here's a comparison of his first 31 at-bats from each year:
2006: .226 avg., .333 OBP, .483 slugging, 1 HR, 5 2B, 3 RBI.
2007: .194 avg., .286 OBP, .387 slugging, 1 HR, 3 2B, 2 RBI.
Essentially, my friend is fretting over two doubles and a walk here and there. To fret over anything from 31 AB is over-reacting but these lines suggest the same thing common sense should: it's a cold streak of 31 at-bats. Not to mention, he had the same number of home runs after 31 at bats, so that total of 35 still looks pretty attainable.
If we're going to overreact to bad ten-game stretches, here are some players to worry about after nearly two weeks of play.
Miguel Tejada - .271/.340/.333, 1 HR in 48 AB.
The power just isn't there so far, and it is more of a concern than for Hall because Tejada is on the wrong side of 30. Still, he has been a streaky hitter throughout his career, looking lost for months at a time while looking like the best shortstop in the game during others. Since he plays a demanding position, Tejada will probably hit his decline sometime soon, but he is still a sure thing to heat up along with the weather.
Man-to-Man final projection: .306/.368/.514, 26 HR.
Manny Ramirez - .194/.310/.222, 0 HR.
Believe it or not, this is just Manny being Manny. Here is the future Hall of Famers' OPS through games played on April 14th the last 5 years, along with OPS by the end of April each year:
2003 - April 15: .709
April 30: .963
2004 - April 15: 1.089
April 30: 1.095
2005 - April 15: .557
April 30: .993
2006 - April 15: .549
April 30: .865
2007 - April 15: .532
April 30: ?
Except for the Red Sox World Series year in 2004, Manny has come out of the gate slow every season in the last five. My assessment is it's an older player who likes to get away from the game in the offseason. It's taking a while to get his picture-perfect swing back, but it always does show up. Expect it to come back as soon as the rain allows him to step up to the plate.
Man-to-Man final projection: .309/.411/.598, 37 HR.
Alfonso Soriano - .233/.289/.349, 0 HR.
This is by far the worst start to any full season Soriano has had, which makes the rest of the year a question mark? His lack of plate discipline makes him a difficult hitter to predict anyway, but he can still hit anybody's fastball a mile, and he'll continue to see those in the NL. He is hard to manage because he a) doesn't have a position; and b) is a leadoff-type player, but not a leadoff-type hitter. His career on-base percentage is .325, but he is good at scoring runs once he gets on. I had him pegged as a disappointment this year, but he is too talented and the league is too mediocre for him to struggle this much,
Man-to-Man final projection: .267/.329/.502, 32 HR
Ryan Howard - .237/.463/.368.
Considering the circumstaces, I don't find this to be a troublesome start, but since ESPN is making a big deal of it, it might be worth addressing. The reason for all the fuss is a) the expectations in Philly; b) the lack of precedent for Howard; and c) the quick success he had last year. He has only had one full season, and last year there weren't all that many eyes on Howard when he was only slugging .395 two weeks into the season last year. Howard only had one homer in his first 11 games last year and that was when he was getting pitched to. Now he's getting the full-fledged Bonds treatment and learning to adjust to life only getting two good opportunities to hit per game. For anyone who doubts his ability based on his start, I invite you to look up his second-half numbers from last year. Or just remember: he wasn't an MVP candidate until August.
Man-to-Man Projection: .278/.441/.615, 46 HR
Albert Pujols - .167/.255/.357 2 HR
This is his first bad start in the most consistent carreer I've ever witnessed. His number are always so easy to predict and he always seems to be hitting in some way or another, so this is a little surprising. Still, I'm going to chalk this up to the Manny Ramirez Syndrome. This is Albert Pujols we're talking about.
Man-to-Man Projection: .320/.430/.630, 46 HR
The Washington Nationals - 3-9 record
Once Ryan Church cools down, it will probably get worse.
Man-to-Man Projection: 51-111
After all that, Bill Hall finished the game today 0-for-4, pushing his slump to 1-for-18. Uh oh. Only 502 more at bats to go.
My friend responded with skepticism, saying "not this year." I inquired as to why he thought Hall was not capable of 35 home runs, and he said "look at his numbers so far. It doesn't look like he's going to hit more than 25."
It's true that Hall is off to a rough start...in his first 31 at bats. He hit his 35 home runs last year in 537 at bats with a batting line of .270/.345/.553, meaning despite the one home run and .194/.286/.387 line so far this year, he still has over 500 at bats to go. Then when you consider that he started the year 5-17 with a home run and two double, his slow start can essentially be attributed to a 1-14 slump in his last 5 games. Over the course of last season, Bill Hall had three slumps worse than the 1-for-14 drought he's in right now, and a handful of 1-for-11 type slumps mixed in. Here's a comparison of his first 31 at-bats from each year:
2006: .226 avg., .333 OBP, .483 slugging, 1 HR, 5 2B, 3 RBI.
2007: .194 avg., .286 OBP, .387 slugging, 1 HR, 3 2B, 2 RBI.
Essentially, my friend is fretting over two doubles and a walk here and there. To fret over anything from 31 AB is over-reacting but these lines suggest the same thing common sense should: it's a cold streak of 31 at-bats. Not to mention, he had the same number of home runs after 31 at bats, so that total of 35 still looks pretty attainable.
If we're going to overreact to bad ten-game stretches, here are some players to worry about after nearly two weeks of play.
Miguel Tejada - .271/.340/.333, 1 HR in 48 AB.
The power just isn't there so far, and it is more of a concern than for Hall because Tejada is on the wrong side of 30. Still, he has been a streaky hitter throughout his career, looking lost for months at a time while looking like the best shortstop in the game during others. Since he plays a demanding position, Tejada will probably hit his decline sometime soon, but he is still a sure thing to heat up along with the weather.
Man-to-Man final projection: .306/.368/.514, 26 HR.
Manny Ramirez - .194/.310/.222, 0 HR.
Believe it or not, this is just Manny being Manny. Here is the future Hall of Famers' OPS through games played on April 14th the last 5 years, along with OPS by the end of April each year:
2003 - April 15: .709
April 30: .963
2004 - April 15: 1.089
April 30: 1.095
2005 - April 15: .557
April 30: .993
2006 - April 15: .549
April 30: .865
2007 - April 15: .532
April 30: ?
Except for the Red Sox World Series year in 2004, Manny has come out of the gate slow every season in the last five. My assessment is it's an older player who likes to get away from the game in the offseason. It's taking a while to get his picture-perfect swing back, but it always does show up. Expect it to come back as soon as the rain allows him to step up to the plate.
Man-to-Man final projection: .309/.411/.598, 37 HR.
Alfonso Soriano - .233/.289/.349, 0 HR.
This is by far the worst start to any full season Soriano has had, which makes the rest of the year a question mark? His lack of plate discipline makes him a difficult hitter to predict anyway, but he can still hit anybody's fastball a mile, and he'll continue to see those in the NL. He is hard to manage because he a) doesn't have a position; and b) is a leadoff-type player, but not a leadoff-type hitter. His career on-base percentage is .325, but he is good at scoring runs once he gets on. I had him pegged as a disappointment this year, but he is too talented and the league is too mediocre for him to struggle this much,
Man-to-Man final projection: .267/.329/.502, 32 HR
Ryan Howard - .237/.463/.368.
Considering the circumstaces, I don't find this to be a troublesome start, but since ESPN is making a big deal of it, it might be worth addressing. The reason for all the fuss is a) the expectations in Philly; b) the lack of precedent for Howard; and c) the quick success he had last year. He has only had one full season, and last year there weren't all that many eyes on Howard when he was only slugging .395 two weeks into the season last year. Howard only had one homer in his first 11 games last year and that was when he was getting pitched to. Now he's getting the full-fledged Bonds treatment and learning to adjust to life only getting two good opportunities to hit per game. For anyone who doubts his ability based on his start, I invite you to look up his second-half numbers from last year. Or just remember: he wasn't an MVP candidate until August.
Man-to-Man Projection: .278/.441/.615, 46 HR
Albert Pujols - .167/.255/.357 2 HR
This is his first bad start in the most consistent carreer I've ever witnessed. His number are always so easy to predict and he always seems to be hitting in some way or another, so this is a little surprising. Still, I'm going to chalk this up to the Manny Ramirez Syndrome. This is Albert Pujols we're talking about.
Man-to-Man Projection: .320/.430/.630, 46 HR
The Washington Nationals - 3-9 record
Once Ryan Church cools down, it will probably get worse.
Man-to-Man Projection: 51-111
After all that, Bill Hall finished the game today 0-for-4, pushing his slump to 1-for-18. Uh oh. Only 502 more at bats to go.
posted by Matt Manley at 10:09 AM
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