BASEBALL/NCAA PREVIEW
As I type this sentence, we are less than four hours away from the start of baseball season, when all is right with the world for six months. Sunday isn't actually all that exciting, unless you're Mets or Cardinals fan, because it's only one game and it seems like a letdown considering the buildup to it. Monday, however, is not a letdown, and it is positively one of my favorite days of the year. Baseball from 1 p.m. until bed time, and if you need a break from the diamond, flip over to the hardwood for the National Championship game between the Odens and the Horfords.
Quick Hoops aside: I was really pulling for Georgetown yesterday. I'm a Big East guy through and through, I love wathcing Georgetown's style of play (their performance against UNC was basketball poetry), they have an actual center on the team, and Jeff Green has been underrated for what seems like his entire life. The main reason though, is that JTIII is my favorite coach in college hoops. It took him three years to turn Georgetown into a national power again, doing so by implementing the Princeton-style offense with legitimate blue-chip basketball players. There isn't a team in the country that has been able to pull this off, but Thompson Pt. 3 got his players to buy into the system and it looks great when it's going good.
And Ohio State wouldn't have it. The fatal flaw in the Georgetown offense is that against a zone defense with a dominant big man, the back door cuts are met with help underneath the basket and for the second half of that game, that help came in the form of Greg Oden. The only way to get into any offensive flow in that offense is to shoot the lights out and get Ohio State out of the zone, which isn't the Hoyas' strong point. Thad Matta kept them honest by playing a little man-to-man, but Ohio State was the wrong team at the wrong time for G-Town.
I'm not sure they're the wrong team at the wrong time for Florida (who is?), but it won't be 86-60 again. Florida really benefited from Aaron Afflalo's foul trouble, and had too much size and athleticism in their front court for a much smaller UCLA team to contend with. OSU can match the Florida front court when Oden is on his game and, more importantly, on the floor. But foul trouble will most certainly be an issue for Oden, as it's been every game during the tournament. As long as either Horford or Joakim Noah are on the floor, the Gators will stomp (or should I say chomp?) on the Buckeyes if they go without Oden for too long, just like they did to UCLA. Florida wins it again, but Mike Conley and Oden will deliver some drama.
Pick: Florida 71, Ohio State 67
That's a pretty long aside, but it's nothing compared to what's on my mind as we draw close to Chris Carpenter's first pitch tonight. I could go on and on about who will win which division, who looks good, who's better, who's worse, etc. Instead, here are the things I'm looking forward to most in 2007.
Barry Bonds passes Hank Aaron
I know I'm in the minority when I say that Bonds passing Aaron is legitimate, but I'm not going to challenge the masses on this one. At least not yet. For now, I'll just say that Bonds is the best hitter the league's ever known based purely on the numbers, and based on that, he is a worthy record holder. More than that though, the Bonds issue is still something baseball either needs to embrace or escape, and it's pretty clear MLB and its fans as a whole won't embrace it. Here's hoping Barry passes it this year, retires, and enjoys retirement. I'll be the guy that's rooting for him.
**Hopefully, people start reading this blog in the near future, in which case I'll go into detail about my feelings on the steroid issue in sports. Bonds is the face of the problem, but it's become a pretty widespread issue, at least in terms of public perception. It's especially relevant in the track world, and I'd be interested to hear what people think.
Quick Hoops aside: I was really pulling for Georgetown yesterday. I'm a Big East guy through and through, I love wathcing Georgetown's style of play (their performance against UNC was basketball poetry), they have an actual center on the team, and Jeff Green has been underrated for what seems like his entire life. The main reason though, is that JTIII is my favorite coach in college hoops. It took him three years to turn Georgetown into a national power again, doing so by implementing the Princeton-style offense with legitimate blue-chip basketball players. There isn't a team in the country that has been able to pull this off, but Thompson Pt. 3 got his players to buy into the system and it looks great when it's going good.
And Ohio State wouldn't have it. The fatal flaw in the Georgetown offense is that against a zone defense with a dominant big man, the back door cuts are met with help underneath the basket and for the second half of that game, that help came in the form of Greg Oden. The only way to get into any offensive flow in that offense is to shoot the lights out and get Ohio State out of the zone, which isn't the Hoyas' strong point. Thad Matta kept them honest by playing a little man-to-man, but Ohio State was the wrong team at the wrong time for G-Town.
I'm not sure they're the wrong team at the wrong time for Florida (who is?), but it won't be 86-60 again. Florida really benefited from Aaron Afflalo's foul trouble, and had too much size and athleticism in their front court for a much smaller UCLA team to contend with. OSU can match the Florida front court when Oden is on his game and, more importantly, on the floor. But foul trouble will most certainly be an issue for Oden, as it's been every game during the tournament. As long as either Horford or Joakim Noah are on the floor, the Gators will stomp (or should I say chomp?) on the Buckeyes if they go without Oden for too long, just like they did to UCLA. Florida wins it again, but Mike Conley and Oden will deliver some drama.
Pick: Florida 71, Ohio State 67
That's a pretty long aside, but it's nothing compared to what's on my mind as we draw close to Chris Carpenter's first pitch tonight. I could go on and on about who will win which division, who looks good, who's better, who's worse, etc. Instead, here are the things I'm looking forward to most in 2007.
Barry Bonds passes Hank Aaron
I know I'm in the minority when I say that Bonds passing Aaron is legitimate, but I'm not going to challenge the masses on this one. At least not yet. For now, I'll just say that Bonds is the best hitter the league's ever known based purely on the numbers, and based on that, he is a worthy record holder. More than that though, the Bonds issue is still something baseball either needs to embrace or escape, and it's pretty clear MLB and its fans as a whole won't embrace it. Here's hoping Barry passes it this year, retires, and enjoys retirement. I'll be the guy that's rooting for him.
**Hopefully, people start reading this blog in the near future, in which case I'll go into detail about my feelings on the steroid issue in sports. Bonds is the face of the problem, but it's become a pretty widespread issue, at least in terms of public perception. It's especially relevant in the track world, and I'd be interested to hear what people think.
The Surprise Team
The darkhorse seemed to be exclusive to football just a few years back, but starting with the Angels in 2002, baseball has been pretty reliable when it comes to serving up Cinderellas. There's been a lot of talk about the parity in baseball and how it's matched that of the NFL. While I'm not totally sold on that premise, it seems football sleepers and their baseball counterparts have one thing in common, it's this: they are mostly one-year wonders.
That's why it surprises me when I see so many people picking the Tigers to win it all again. Those same people picked the White Sox last year, the Angels in 2003 and the Marlins in 2004. What's so hard to figure out. A team gets lucky with injuries, a couple of career years (Kenny Rogers, Jarrod Washburn in 2002, Mike Lowell, Juan Pierre, and Alex Gonzalez on the Marlins)and some kids that are fast learners (see John Lackey, Miguel Cabrera, the entire Marlins pitching staff, and Justin Verlander) and you have the recipe for a good team. The problem is always duplicating it. The Tigers have a good roster, but how is it better than that of the Yankees? Red Sox? Indians? Twins? The Sheffield addition helps, but look at the lineup around him:
Curtis Granderson - I actually like Granderson. Only Ichiro, Grady Sizemore, Johnny Damon, Brian Roberts, Rocco Baldelli, and Reed Johnson are the only better defined leadoff hitters in the AL, with everyone else being an argument one way or another or just plain worse. I don't worry about the strikeouts (an AL worst 174, 20 more than whiff-master Richie Sexson) or the relatively low OBP (.335). Sizemore is the best in in the business out of the leadoff spot and he finished third in the league with 153 Ks in 2006. Meanwhile, the OBP is bad, but the potential for improvement is there in the form of 66 walks and and a nice 80:95 walk:K rate at AA Erie in 2004 as a 23-year old. As isolated problems, they are easy to overcome, but paired together they are a little disconcerting. In order to up his OBP to a desirable level, he'll probably have to raise his average from .260 to about .290, which means fewer strikeouts. But making a concerted effort to cut down strikeouts usually ends up hurting the power numbers and even hurting the walk rate. That said, I still think Granderson has the potential to turn into a good leadoff hitter in the next couple of years, eventually getting to .290/.370/.460 line on a consistent basis. But for now, his strikeout/walk issues, couple with the fact that he can't touch lefties (.218 in 147 at bats) makes him just another piece of a questionable offense.
Ivan Rodriguez - Pudge will leadoff against lefties according to Jim Leyland, which is a welcome improvement over Granderson in those situations. Pudge hit a healthy .340 against lefties last year, with a .506 slugging percentage to boot. The issues with the future all of famer arise when a right-hander is on the mound. In 2006, Rodriguez hit .284/.310/.409 against righties, not terrible for a strong defensive cather, but not nearly worthy of your average 2-to-6-hole hitter. Given his reputation, it's hard to fathom Pudge ever dropping below the sixth spot in the order, in which case the Tigers will have to deal with below average production out of a power spot in the lineup. That's only the beginning.
Placido Polanco, Craig Monroe, Sean Casey, Brandon Inge - Not exactly murders row here. Monroe and Inge have some legitimate pop in their bats, but when they're not popping off, they're popping out. Both are out-making machines, with Monroe registering a dismal .301 OBP and Inge a similarly paltry .313. The good news is they can still hit the ball over the fence 30 times if give the at-bats, which is more than Sean Casey or Placido Polanco can say. Polanco is actually a good fit for the Tigers because he's a tough out who can take his walk just as easily as he can hit behind runners and bunt. Casey's final numbers were less than spectacular, but his production in the AL was flat-out atrocious (.234/.286/.364). Casey and Polanco represent the less than exciting hitters the Tigers have to offer, while Monroe and Inge represent the overall hack-away mentality of the lineup. There is one saving grace in that approach however.
Carlos Guillen - It pains me to think about the second-most productive shortstop in the AL last year because my Mariners gave him up for some magic beans (which promptly turned into Ramon Santiago). But Guillen was a legitmate MVP candidate last year, serving as the Tigers best offensive player by a large margin and doing so while playing a respectable shortstop. Along with Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez, Guillen will have the Tigers in contention as long as he avoids the injury bug that plagued him as a young player with Seattle. But the fodder the follows them in the lineup is no match for the Yankee, Red Sox, and Indian lineups, or the young guns joining Johan Santana in the Minnesota rotation.
Throw in Justin Verlander's low strikeout rate, Fernando Rodney's high walk rate, Joel Zumaya's heavy workload as a rookie, and Todd Jones in general, and the Tigers have more question marks than the White Sox did last year.
So after picking apart last year's surprise, who can we label as this year's? Obviously, the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, A's, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Cardinals, Astros, and Dodgers don't apply based on their recent success. Throw out the Phillies, Cubs, Giants, and Blue Jays based on pretty high expectations inside and outside of the organzations themselves. Also exclude to Braves, Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Indians because everyone and their brother like them as "sleeper" teams.
That leaves Baltimore, Tampa, Kansas City, Texas, Seattle, Florida, Washington, Cincinatti, Pittsburgh, Colorado, and San Diego as possible sleepers. While they don't really fall into any of the previous categories, the Padres shouldn't be called a sleeper if they do well. They were underrated the last two years, and this year, you can expect anything from them. They could win the World Series or finish with 70 wins. Neither would surprise me. They're gone.
Throw out KC, Washington, and Colorado on the basis that the personnel just isn't there. Tampa is a little better than those three on the strength of its young hitters, but they don't have a prayer in the AL East. Baltimore will a much improved team thanks to a nice 1-2-3 punch in Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, and Adam Loewen, who will all blossom under Leo Mazzone. They too, however, reside in the AL East, and ultimately don't have horses to hang with the Sox and Yanks.
Florida has the same problem to a lesser degree, with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves all significantly deeper on talent. Miguel Cabrera is still the next Manny Ramirez, but doesn't have the luxury of growing up in a loaded lineup like Manny did in Cleveland.
We're down to Seattle, Texas, and Cincy. The Rangers and the M's both have a chance to win the mediocre AL West, but at this point, neither really stands out. Unless Felix Hernandez is a Cy Young level pitcher this year, the M's stand out a little bit less. Much to my dismay, they're out.
We're down to Texas and Cincy. Texas has the names in the lineup, although they are just that. Mark Teixeira and Michael Young are two of the more overrated players in the AL (See Teixeira's road splits and find me another one of Michael Young's seasons close to 2005. Young also has very limited range at shortstop, which won't help a busy defense). Even so, they are both very good players, and Teixeira in particular always has the potential to put up MVP numbers. His walk rates are trending up and there is reason to believe he can carry the Rangers. The pitching is a bit of a problem again, but not as much as most people think. Kevin Millwood's ERA last year was over a run and a half higher than his league-leading 2.86 ERA in 2005, but his 2006 rate numbers (Ks, K:BB, groundball:flyball) were all basically the same as they were in Cleveland. The ERA might not even decrease, with a bad infield defense costing him a lot of singles that most infields could turn into outs, but he will pitch fairly well. The rotation is spotty behind him, but Akinori Otsuka anchors a pretty good pen that could be even better if they get anything out of Eric Gagne.
Cincinatti has power in the corner outfield spots, and a pretty good CF/leadoff hitter in Ryan Freel. Josh Hamilton is still a wild card at this point, but it's looking more and more like he will be a difference-maker at the major league level, if not a very good player. Edwin Encarnacion will have the first of many good seasons at third base, and Brandon Phillips finally started tapping into his potential last year. Scott Hatteberg will man first base for now, but 23-yearold Joey Votto is ready when the Reds are ready to give him a chance. He is an upgrade when he arrives. The bullpen has come into question, and rightfully so, but the starting pitching is a little underrated. Harang and Arroyo were excellent last year and if they can keep the ball within the confines of the Great American Bandbox, they'll have good years again. Homer Bailey will be the key for the Reds. If Bailey, arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball, puts himself in the Rookie of the Year race, the Reds will find themselves in a pennant race.
I'm going to cop out and pick both of them as sleepers since they are in different leagues, but Texas has the better chance of turning a good year into a playoff berth given the weak four-team AL West. The NL Central isn't great, but there are two extra teams to deal with and the Cardinals are always better than they appear.
The Kids
There are already a nice crop of players under 25 thanks to a great rookie class last year. The 2007 class should be similarly impressive, even if you exclude Daisuke Matsuzaka. The way people are talking about Alex Gordon, you would think Cooperstown already has his bust waiting for him when he retires. The scary thing is that the praise is warranted. Gordon is not only going to be a great player in his prime, but he immediately makes the Royals a respectable team again. He'll be a borderline all-star this year.
Delmon Young is another name that's been thrown around as an all-star-in-waiting, although he's not quite as refined as Gordon. Young hasn't shown much discipline at the plate (and that's without the bat-throwing incident), but he has shown the ability to hit just about anything near the plate with authority. He'll take a little longer than Gordon to settle into his MLB numbers, but in Young, you're looking at a Vladimir Guerrero-Ken Griffey Jr.-type talent. If that's what he's on his way to becoming, we'll know this year.
On the mound, Andrew Miller (Tigers), Tim Lincecum (Giants), Adam Miller (Indians), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Luke Hochevar (Royals), Bailey, Brandon Morrow (Mariners), Phillip Hughes (Yankees), and Mike Pelfrey (Mets) look ready to make an impact this year.
And Finally....
King Felix
Felix Hernandez is really the only reason to look forward to the Mariners' season. He is the youngest opening day starter in the majors since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, but he doesn't look his age on the mound. He has the rare ability to roll up groundball after groundball, or rack up K after K. If and when he understands how to get one as opposed to the other, he will likely win a Cy Young award. Even in a bad year in 2006, Felix was among the 15 best pitchers in the League despite surrendering an inordinate amount of home runs (23) for a groundball pitcher. With a little maturation and a little bit of luck, Felix will throw his name in the Cy Young hat.
The darkhorse seemed to be exclusive to football just a few years back, but starting with the Angels in 2002, baseball has been pretty reliable when it comes to serving up Cinderellas. There's been a lot of talk about the parity in baseball and how it's matched that of the NFL. While I'm not totally sold on that premise, it seems football sleepers and their baseball counterparts have one thing in common, it's this: they are mostly one-year wonders.
That's why it surprises me when I see so many people picking the Tigers to win it all again. Those same people picked the White Sox last year, the Angels in 2003 and the Marlins in 2004. What's so hard to figure out. A team gets lucky with injuries, a couple of career years (Kenny Rogers, Jarrod Washburn in 2002, Mike Lowell, Juan Pierre, and Alex Gonzalez on the Marlins)and some kids that are fast learners (see John Lackey, Miguel Cabrera, the entire Marlins pitching staff, and Justin Verlander) and you have the recipe for a good team. The problem is always duplicating it. The Tigers have a good roster, but how is it better than that of the Yankees? Red Sox? Indians? Twins? The Sheffield addition helps, but look at the lineup around him:
Curtis Granderson - I actually like Granderson. Only Ichiro, Grady Sizemore, Johnny Damon, Brian Roberts, Rocco Baldelli, and Reed Johnson are the only better defined leadoff hitters in the AL, with everyone else being an argument one way or another or just plain worse. I don't worry about the strikeouts (an AL worst 174, 20 more than whiff-master Richie Sexson) or the relatively low OBP (.335). Sizemore is the best in in the business out of the leadoff spot and he finished third in the league with 153 Ks in 2006. Meanwhile, the OBP is bad, but the potential for improvement is there in the form of 66 walks and and a nice 80:95 walk:K rate at AA Erie in 2004 as a 23-year old. As isolated problems, they are easy to overcome, but paired together they are a little disconcerting. In order to up his OBP to a desirable level, he'll probably have to raise his average from .260 to about .290, which means fewer strikeouts. But making a concerted effort to cut down strikeouts usually ends up hurting the power numbers and even hurting the walk rate. That said, I still think Granderson has the potential to turn into a good leadoff hitter in the next couple of years, eventually getting to .290/.370/.460 line on a consistent basis. But for now, his strikeout/walk issues, couple with the fact that he can't touch lefties (.218 in 147 at bats) makes him just another piece of a questionable offense.
Ivan Rodriguez - Pudge will leadoff against lefties according to Jim Leyland, which is a welcome improvement over Granderson in those situations. Pudge hit a healthy .340 against lefties last year, with a .506 slugging percentage to boot. The issues with the future all of famer arise when a right-hander is on the mound. In 2006, Rodriguez hit .284/.310/.409 against righties, not terrible for a strong defensive cather, but not nearly worthy of your average 2-to-6-hole hitter. Given his reputation, it's hard to fathom Pudge ever dropping below the sixth spot in the order, in which case the Tigers will have to deal with below average production out of a power spot in the lineup. That's only the beginning.
Placido Polanco, Craig Monroe, Sean Casey, Brandon Inge - Not exactly murders row here. Monroe and Inge have some legitimate pop in their bats, but when they're not popping off, they're popping out. Both are out-making machines, with Monroe registering a dismal .301 OBP and Inge a similarly paltry .313. The good news is they can still hit the ball over the fence 30 times if give the at-bats, which is more than Sean Casey or Placido Polanco can say. Polanco is actually a good fit for the Tigers because he's a tough out who can take his walk just as easily as he can hit behind runners and bunt. Casey's final numbers were less than spectacular, but his production in the AL was flat-out atrocious (.234/.286/.364). Casey and Polanco represent the less than exciting hitters the Tigers have to offer, while Monroe and Inge represent the overall hack-away mentality of the lineup. There is one saving grace in that approach however.
Carlos Guillen - It pains me to think about the second-most productive shortstop in the AL last year because my Mariners gave him up for some magic beans (which promptly turned into Ramon Santiago). But Guillen was a legitmate MVP candidate last year, serving as the Tigers best offensive player by a large margin and doing so while playing a respectable shortstop. Along with Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez, Guillen will have the Tigers in contention as long as he avoids the injury bug that plagued him as a young player with Seattle. But the fodder the follows them in the lineup is no match for the Yankee, Red Sox, and Indian lineups, or the young guns joining Johan Santana in the Minnesota rotation.
Throw in Justin Verlander's low strikeout rate, Fernando Rodney's high walk rate, Joel Zumaya's heavy workload as a rookie, and Todd Jones in general, and the Tigers have more question marks than the White Sox did last year.
So after picking apart last year's surprise, who can we label as this year's? Obviously, the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, A's, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Cardinals, Astros, and Dodgers don't apply based on their recent success. Throw out the Phillies, Cubs, Giants, and Blue Jays based on pretty high expectations inside and outside of the organzations themselves. Also exclude to Braves, Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Indians because everyone and their brother like them as "sleeper" teams.
That leaves Baltimore, Tampa, Kansas City, Texas, Seattle, Florida, Washington, Cincinatti, Pittsburgh, Colorado, and San Diego as possible sleepers. While they don't really fall into any of the previous categories, the Padres shouldn't be called a sleeper if they do well. They were underrated the last two years, and this year, you can expect anything from them. They could win the World Series or finish with 70 wins. Neither would surprise me. They're gone.
Throw out KC, Washington, and Colorado on the basis that the personnel just isn't there. Tampa is a little better than those three on the strength of its young hitters, but they don't have a prayer in the AL East. Baltimore will a much improved team thanks to a nice 1-2-3 punch in Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, and Adam Loewen, who will all blossom under Leo Mazzone. They too, however, reside in the AL East, and ultimately don't have horses to hang with the Sox and Yanks.
Florida has the same problem to a lesser degree, with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves all significantly deeper on talent. Miguel Cabrera is still the next Manny Ramirez, but doesn't have the luxury of growing up in a loaded lineup like Manny did in Cleveland.
We're down to Seattle, Texas, and Cincy. The Rangers and the M's both have a chance to win the mediocre AL West, but at this point, neither really stands out. Unless Felix Hernandez is a Cy Young level pitcher this year, the M's stand out a little bit less. Much to my dismay, they're out.
We're down to Texas and Cincy. Texas has the names in the lineup, although they are just that. Mark Teixeira and Michael Young are two of the more overrated players in the AL (See Teixeira's road splits and find me another one of Michael Young's seasons close to 2005. Young also has very limited range at shortstop, which won't help a busy defense). Even so, they are both very good players, and Teixeira in particular always has the potential to put up MVP numbers. His walk rates are trending up and there is reason to believe he can carry the Rangers. The pitching is a bit of a problem again, but not as much as most people think. Kevin Millwood's ERA last year was over a run and a half higher than his league-leading 2.86 ERA in 2005, but his 2006 rate numbers (Ks, K:BB, groundball:flyball) were all basically the same as they were in Cleveland. The ERA might not even decrease, with a bad infield defense costing him a lot of singles that most infields could turn into outs, but he will pitch fairly well. The rotation is spotty behind him, but Akinori Otsuka anchors a pretty good pen that could be even better if they get anything out of Eric Gagne.
Cincinatti has power in the corner outfield spots, and a pretty good CF/leadoff hitter in Ryan Freel. Josh Hamilton is still a wild card at this point, but it's looking more and more like he will be a difference-maker at the major league level, if not a very good player. Edwin Encarnacion will have the first of many good seasons at third base, and Brandon Phillips finally started tapping into his potential last year. Scott Hatteberg will man first base for now, but 23-yearold Joey Votto is ready when the Reds are ready to give him a chance. He is an upgrade when he arrives. The bullpen has come into question, and rightfully so, but the starting pitching is a little underrated. Harang and Arroyo were excellent last year and if they can keep the ball within the confines of the Great American Bandbox, they'll have good years again. Homer Bailey will be the key for the Reds. If Bailey, arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball, puts himself in the Rookie of the Year race, the Reds will find themselves in a pennant race.
I'm going to cop out and pick both of them as sleepers since they are in different leagues, but Texas has the better chance of turning a good year into a playoff berth given the weak four-team AL West. The NL Central isn't great, but there are two extra teams to deal with and the Cardinals are always better than they appear.
The Kids
There are already a nice crop of players under 25 thanks to a great rookie class last year. The 2007 class should be similarly impressive, even if you exclude Daisuke Matsuzaka. The way people are talking about Alex Gordon, you would think Cooperstown already has his bust waiting for him when he retires. The scary thing is that the praise is warranted. Gordon is not only going to be a great player in his prime, but he immediately makes the Royals a respectable team again. He'll be a borderline all-star this year.
Delmon Young is another name that's been thrown around as an all-star-in-waiting, although he's not quite as refined as Gordon. Young hasn't shown much discipline at the plate (and that's without the bat-throwing incident), but he has shown the ability to hit just about anything near the plate with authority. He'll take a little longer than Gordon to settle into his MLB numbers, but in Young, you're looking at a Vladimir Guerrero-Ken Griffey Jr.-type talent. If that's what he's on his way to becoming, we'll know this year.
On the mound, Andrew Miller (Tigers), Tim Lincecum (Giants), Adam Miller (Indians), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Luke Hochevar (Royals), Bailey, Brandon Morrow (Mariners), Phillip Hughes (Yankees), and Mike Pelfrey (Mets) look ready to make an impact this year.
And Finally....
King Felix
Felix Hernandez is really the only reason to look forward to the Mariners' season. He is the youngest opening day starter in the majors since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, but he doesn't look his age on the mound. He has the rare ability to roll up groundball after groundball, or rack up K after K. If and when he understands how to get one as opposed to the other, he will likely win a Cy Young award. Even in a bad year in 2006, Felix was among the 15 best pitchers in the League despite surrendering an inordinate amount of home runs (23) for a groundball pitcher. With a little maturation and a little bit of luck, Felix will throw his name in the Cy Young hat.
I'll have plenty on Felix, the Mets, the Yanks, the Phillies, and anything else from the baseball season worth the time over the course of the next six months. Of course, track will be the primary focus, but I'll throw some baseball in every week or so, along with other sports stuff.
The Picks
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Red Sox
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Mets
ALDS: Yankees over Rangers; Indians over Red Sox
NLDS: Mets over Cardinals; Braves over Dodgers
ALCS: Yankees over Indians
NLCS: Braves over Mets
WS: Yankees over Braves
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira (probably not if I had a vote, but the media loves him)
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Manager: Ron Washington, Texas
AL Comeback Player: Zack Greinke
AL Rookie: Alex Gordon
AL Breakout Player: Rocco Baldelli
AL Breakout Pitcher: Adam Loewen
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Ben Sheets
NL Manager: Bobby Cox
NL Comeback Player: Josh Hamilton
NL Rookie: Homer Bailey
NL Breakout Player: Edwin Encarnacion
NL Breakout Pitcher: Rich Hill
Enjoy the season.
The Picks
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Red Sox
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Mets
ALDS: Yankees over Rangers; Indians over Red Sox
NLDS: Mets over Cardinals; Braves over Dodgers
ALCS: Yankees over Indians
NLCS: Braves over Mets
WS: Yankees over Braves
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira (probably not if I had a vote, but the media loves him)
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Manager: Ron Washington, Texas
AL Comeback Player: Zack Greinke
AL Rookie: Alex Gordon
AL Breakout Player: Rocco Baldelli
AL Breakout Pitcher: Adam Loewen
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Ben Sheets
NL Manager: Bobby Cox
NL Comeback Player: Josh Hamilton
NL Rookie: Homer Bailey
NL Breakout Player: Edwin Encarnacion
NL Breakout Pitcher: Rich Hill
Enjoy the season.
posted by Matt Manley at 1:19 PM
6 Comments:
More Red Bank Catholic, less MLB puhlease.
You're not the first person who's asked for more RBC. We'll settle on a J.C. Menna Watch and call it a compromise.
I'd be interested in knowing your opinion on who the best '09 swimmer is in Ocean County.
Andrea Criscuolo of Point Beach, hands down. Specializes in backstroke and butterfly (second in the state this year), and says she models her fly after Michael Phelps (breathes on every stroke). Any more brainbusters?
You really like Cincy? They have one good picther (Harang) and a few decent batters. I know it's cliche, but Dunn can't strikeout that much. Freel is decent at best, and, although I'm rooting for him, it's hard to rely on Griffey. Good job sticking up for Barry. We need more supporters for the best baseball player I have ever seen.
Any chance of you commenting on tennis?
#5 - Roger Federer IS tennis. What else is there to say?
I think you are underestimating Bronson Arroyo and overestimating the NL Central. The Brewers pitching could win it for them, the Cardinals are relying a lot on Wainwright and Reyes, and while that's actually better than relying on Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, that decimates their bullpen. The Astros and the Cubs have just as many question marks as the Reds, but people actually expect good things from the first two, hence the surprise part.
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