18 Questions

This post was originally called "20 questions" but four teams played today, and two lost including New Egypt. So, intsead we have "18 Questions".


Howell


Section: Central Jersey Group IV
State Wins: Defeated No. 13 Trenton 4-1.
Next Opponent: No. 12 Montgomery, Friday 2 p.m. at Howell HS.
Chances This Game: Howell beat Montgomery 6-0 in last year's CJ IV first round and, while not more talented than last year's team, the Rebels have played a little sharper than the 2006 squad. Montgomery knows who Kyle Bethel is after he torched them last year, but that doesn't mean they can stop him or anyone else on Howell for that matter. Nothing would surprise me more than Howell losing this one.
Chances Going Forward: If they win as expected, Howell will either get a hot East Brunswick team at home or top-seeded North Brunswick on the road. Still, you have to like Howell's chances against either. They are the best team in this bracket, and it's just a matter of proving it.



Manalapan


Section: Central Jersey Group IV
State Wins: Defeated No. 11 Brick 3-0.
Next Opponent: No. 3 Hunterdon Central, Friday 2 p.m. at HCHS.
Chances This Game: 50-50 give or take. In last year's sectional final, Hunterdon Central did a nice job containing George Quintano until he finally broke free in the 96th minute for the game-winning goal. In that game, Dann Delorenzo and Erik Ilisije played well for the Braves and Grinkevich kept them in it with some big saves. Hunterdon Central returns a lot, and the Braves add Adam Rice, who missed the game last year, to the rematch. I like the way Brandon Russo and the defense have been playing, so my guess is that Manalapan prevails.
Chances Going Forward: We'll have a better idea after watching how Rancocas Valley fairs against Jackson. Manalapan was clearly the better team when they played Jackson, but I couldn't see the Jags getting 5-0'd (made up word alert) if it comes to that. If the Braves get to the finals, Howell is not the only rival that could be waiting for them. North Brunswick has seen Manalapan the last two years, including the 2005 finals when Manalapan blew a 2-0 lead and ultimately fell 3-2.



Jackson Memorial


Section: Central Jersey Group IV
State Wins: Defeated No. 10 West Windsor South 1-1, 3-2 in PKs.
Next Opponent: No. 2 Rancocas Valley, Friday 2 p.m., at RVHS.
Chances This Game: Based on how they've played the last two games, I might be a little worried for the Jaguars. Based on the way Brick Memorial gave RV trouble, I like Jackson's chances. So, ultimately, it's up to the Jags here. They put up an early goal on WWPS, gave up what sounded like a flukey goal before the half, and leaned on Morgans for the win in PKs. That's not necessarily a bad game, but you would have liked to see a dominant outing after the whooping they caught from Manalapan. Still, the tournament's all about survival and Jackson did just that. If they build on the win, they have the wherewithal to knock off the Red Devils and get a possible rematch with Manalapan.
Chances Going Forward: Once the Jags get by this game, its a little more unclear where they stand. They are not getting beat 5-0 again, but that Manalapan game raised some questions about the defense, and maybe even moreso in their attack, which produced zero quality shots. I wouldn't rule out them beating Manalapan in a rematch, but their defense will have to be flawless. Jackson can hang with North Brunswick in the finals, but they'd have a real tough time playing with Howell.



Toms River East


Section: South Jersey Group IV
State Wins: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 7 Vineland, Friday at 3 p.m., at TRHSE
Chances This Game: TR East controlled Marlboro in its SCT, PK loss tot he Mustangs. They played a great defensive second half, and Brandon Zeller is rarely going to be outdone on the field. The only way I see East losing this game is if they aren't ready to play, which Ted Gillen and his seniors won't let happen.
Chances Going Forward: After the Vineland game, things get a little more interesting. The Raiders would get either TR South or Lenape in the semis, which present two different challenges. The battle of Toms River would be a toss-up in my view because of familiarity, while Lenape is more of a mirror image of East in terms of the style they play. The good news is that the Raiders are at home against either one, so their chances to make it to a second straight sectional final are good.



CBA


Section: South Non-Public A
State Wins: Defeated No. 5 SJV 4-1.
Next Opponent: No. 1 St. Augustine, Tuesday 2 p.m., at St. Augustine HS.
Chances This Game: These two are probably getting tired of running into one another. CBA upset the Hermits as an eighth seed in last year's sectional final, while St. Augustine beat CBA in overtime the year before. I thought CBA would have a better team going into the year, but they miss the big-save ability of Scott Micallef. Other than that, the Colts are pretty much the same team that came within a goal of the Non-Public A title. This will certainly be a one-goal game, but my guess is Augustine gets their revenge.
Chances Going Forward: Like I said, this CBA team has similar abilities to the team that made a run last year. They'll need to protect the goal much better than they have in order to get out of the South and to TCNJ, but they have it in them. If they can get by Augustine, Monsignor Donovan will likely be waiting for them, which is a winable game. As someone who covers the Shore, I would love to see Mon Don CBA and I'd struggle to choose between that and Howell-Manalapan Part 8.



Toms River South


Section: South Jersey Group IV
State Wins: Defeated No. 11 Cherry Hill East 3-1.
Next Opponent: No. 3 Lenape, Friday 2 p.m., at Lenape HS.
Chances This Game: I've mentioned TR South's road record in this spot and in the paper before, and it comes into play here. What is really comes down to is that TRS is very tough on the turf and have trouble on the natural surface, which Lenape happens to play on. Lenape will want to play soccer, while the Indians will try to get up and down the field and to Ian Martin's feet in a hurry. From what I know, Lenape is very tough, and I think they'll be too tough for South.
Chances Going Forward: If TRS can pull this one out, they'll be in pretty good shape. I think East is the better team, but South is certainly capable of beating the Raiders on their home turf. If TR East loses to Vineland, then the Indians would have a home game. If the TRS works its way to the finals, don't count out a home game against TR North. More on them later.



Monsignor Donovan


Section: South Non-Public A
State Wins: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 3 Gloucester Catholic, Tuesday 2 p.m., at Whitty Road Fields.
Chances This Game: The home game helps and the Griffins are clearly a battle-tested team. I thought they were a sleeper to get to the finals of the SCT and even in losing to Jackson, they played a very good Group IV school tough. Mon Don is talented enough to win and they might have been well-served to take a loss before states. I like their chances to make the finals.
Chances Going Forward: The North Jersey Schools are typically better, but other than that, I don't know how Mon Don would match up with a team like Seton Hall Prep or Pingry. Either CBA or Augustine in the sectional final would be a good game that could go either way. I'll delve deeper into a CBA matchup if it happens.



Central


Section: South Jersey Group III
State Wins: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 6 Deptford, Friday 2 p.m., at Central Regional HS.
Chances This Game: The Golden Eagles are a sound team with a very good scorer up front in Gashlin, which is similar to how Deptford is built. From what I gather, the difference is the Central defense with Kazuki Io in net. If he plays true to form, Central should move on.
Chances Going Forward: I see Central in a win-win situation if they survive Deptford. Either they avoid No.7 Shawnee or they get a home game. Either way there is a silver-ling as long as they can get by Deptford. No. 1 Ocean City in the finals would be tough, but there is always the possibility of Ocean City getting knocked off and Central hosting the sectional finals.



Monmouth


Section: Central Jersey Group III
State Wins: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 10 Ocean, Friday 2 p.m., at Monmouth Regional HS.
Chances This Game: Ocean battled Monmouth to a 1-1 tie in the last meeting between the two teams, while Monmouth put a 3-0 hurting on them in the first game. Ocean is as healthy as they've been in a while and looked sharp in a 2-0 win over Lakewood. Monmouth has been inconsistent, which is not a good trait to have in a tournament. They've had time to get right since a loss to Howell, most importantly in terms of Tiago Dutra's health. They should be able to get by Ocean.
Chances Going Forward: Monmouth needs to be a lot more consistent, and a team like Red Bank can give them problems with their tough defense and skill players. The Falcons are talented enough to beat anyone in the section, including Princeton, but they wear many hats. It's going to take their better soccer than they've played to wear the crown.



Red Bank


Section: Central Jersey Group III
State Wins: Defeated No. 14 Point Boro 4-1.
Next Opponent: No. 11 Hopewell Valley, Friday 2 p.m., at RBR.
Chances This Game: I like RBR a lot in this one. Jackson saw Hopewell Valley in preseason, and coach Steve Bado didn't seem to think they were anything special. He was very impressed by Red Bank in a PK win over the Bucs in the SCT, and while how you play against Jackson is not the be-all, end-all of comparison. But with that as a frame of reference, and considering Red Bank's skill and senior leadership, I like the Bucs to move on.
Chances Going Forward: I'd favor Red Bank to make the sectional finals over Red Bank at this point, only because you know what you're getting from them. Monmouth will bring the intensity, but that can hurt them as much as it helps them. I'd give the edge in talent to Monmouth, and if they are on their game, the Falcons will be a very tough out for Red Bank.



Manasquan


Section: Central Jersey Group II
State Wins: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 6 Governor Livingston, Friday 2 p.m., at Sea Girt Army Base.
Chances This Game: Manasquan walks the fine line between winning and losing seemingly every game, but they've learned not only to live with it, but to thrive while doing so. Manasquan won't let the game open up enough to blow anyone out, but they can control a game without dominating the score. The Warriors need a win to get the ball rolling, and I think they'll get enough from their attack to give the defense a goal or two. That's usually all it takes.
Chances Going Forward: This is my favorite to win the section. With apologies to Rumson and Shore, Manasquan plays better defense, and still has the man-power up front to put the ball in the net. They have had great success in this bracket over the past two years and have also played tougher schedules than Shore and Rumson. Somerville will be very tough on the road in the semis should Manasquan get there, but they've seen much better teams along the way. As always, finishing is key with them and they always seem to come up with the big goal in postseason.



Rumson-Fair Haven


Section: Central Jersey Group II
State Wins: Bye
Next Opponent: No. 8 Shore, Friday 2 p.m., at RFHHS
Chances This Game: Horrible draw for Rumson. They have already been through two wars with Shore, the Blue Devils will not be thrown off by the Bulldogs' style, and they are hungry for a win after two very tough losses. With that said, I like Rumson because they will be on the turf. They are faster than Shore, their height advantage will help with those high bounces, and it's harder for Shore to play possession on them on the fast track. Shore will be in full force, but Rumson has more experience and the homefield advantage going for it.
Chances Going Forward: Rumson should get to the sectional final if it can survive Shore (literally and figuratively). They have a lot of talent, they are hard to run with, and can score when they need to. They've shown they can win the close game, but I've been more impressed by Manasquan when they've played up than when Rumson has. On the other hand, Rumson played pretty well against Class A Central, going 1-1 with a win over Red Bank and a loss to SJV. I think Manasquan is better, but don't discount the homefield for Rumson.



Shore


Section: Central Jersey Group II
State Wins: Defeated No.9 Carteret 2-1.
Next Opponent: No. 1 Rumson, Friday 2 p.m., at RFHHS.
Chances This Game: Despite losing twice to Rumson this year, Shore wouldn't have it any other way in the second round. There's something to be said for Shore really wanting another crack at Rumson while Rumson has to be shaking their heads at the draw. Shore is going to have to play smart, and under control, something I haven't seen them do for a full game yet. They lost control against a better Freehold Twp. team, and let too many external factors affect them in a winable game at Rumson. Anyone who has been on this blog knows that this rivalry is fierce, so I think cooler heads will prevail in this one.
Chances Going Forward: Shore has not played a great game yet this year. They split with Point Beach, got swept by Rumson, tied Ocean, got blasted by Freehold Twp., lost to Raritan, and failed their A North test against Colts Neck. Their wins have come from the Henry Hudson/Asbury/Mater Die trio (6 wins), one from Point Beach, two from St. Rose, and one against Carteret. Again, they can beat Rumson, but if they had to face Manasquan or a team that beat Manasquan, they'd be the underdog.



Holmdel


Section: North Jersey 2 Group III
State Wins: Defeated No. 5 Ferris 1-0.
Next Opponent: No. 4 Nutley, Friday 2 p.m., at Nutley HS.
Chances This Game: What little senior experience Holmdel has is in the back, and those seniors were up to the task in a 1-0 win over Ferris. John Nacarlo has done as good of a coaching job as anyone at the Shore and I expect Holmdel to play another tough game on the road in round two. That they are even in the tournament with so many freshmen and sophomores playing large roles is key for their development.
Chances Going Forward: I don't see the run going past this round. Maybe the Hornets get a win, but they've had lapses at times, which should be expected from a young team. If they surprise Nutley, top-seeded Cranford will likely be waiting for them and they should have enough to beat Holmdel.



Toms River North


Section: South Jersey Group IV
State Wins: Defeated No. 5 Oakcrest 3-0.
Next Opponent: No. 4 Cherry Hill West, Friday 2 p.m., at CHWHS
Chances This Game: Pretty good actually. I guess you could accuse me of being a Toms River North apologist, but I promise, there is reason it seems that way (other than the fact that I'm a Seattle Mariners fan). I ranked them #4 in the Shore preseason, which was clearly wrong, but they have the talent of a top 10 team. Now that they are healthy, they are playing much better and these top teams in South Jersey - including TR East and TR South - seem beatable. CH West has some very good athletes, but the No. 12 M's are confident that, when healthy, that can beat athletes in a game of soccer. We'll see what they are made of.
Chances Going Forward: The potential quarterfinal game between Washington Twp. and TRN is an interesting one because even though there is a large discrepancy between seeds. This was the 8-9 game in last year's first round and No. 9 TRN played No. 8 Washington even until Washington won on PKs. I don't know what Washington brings back, but TRN has some major players back from last year and some very good sophomores that are starting to fit into their roles. I wouldn't rule out an all Toms River sectional final at this point.



Point Beach


Section: South Jersey Group I
State Wins: Defeated No. 2 New Egypt 0-0, 5-4 on PKs
Next Opponent: Winner of No. 3 Clayton vs. No. 6 Woodbury, Tuesday, at site of winner.
Chances This Game: Hard to say without knowing who they'll be playing, but then again, I don't know much about either potential opponent. Both Clayton and Woodbury made the sectional semis last year, where Point Beach beat Clayton 3-0 to get to the sectional finals. Clayton is traditionally a very good Group I school, but Beach is battle-tested and have a very similar team to the one that made it to the sectional finals last year.
Chances Going Forward: Well a win over Clayton/Woodbury puts Beach back in the finals for the second straight year. They have tested themselves in the regular season against some very good Group II schools and even against a Group IV power in TR East. The Gulls have a very realistic shot to win this section as a seven-seed.



Neptune


Section: Central Jersey Group III
State Wins: Defeated Lawrence 3-2
Next Opponent: No. 1 Princeton, Friday 2 p.m., at Princeton High School.
Chances This Game: I saw Neptune get beat 5-0 by Princeton last year because it was about five minutes from my house. I won't be watching that game again this year, but not because I think it will be a repeat of last year. Both teams are improved, but Neptune is much better than it was last year while Princeton had much less to improve upon. I expect the Little Tigers to play big and win, but Neptune is going to suprise them with their attack. If the Fliers can get a score early they'll play them tough. If they get two goals early, they might shock them.
Chances Going Forward: Any team that can take out the top seed in this bracket has a chance to win the whole thing, especially a team like Neptune that has shown it can put wins together. Monroe will be very tough on whoever gets them in the semis, and Red Bank, Monmouth, or even Ocean could be threats to win the section if they get to the last game. Neptune has beaten both Ocean and Monmouth during its seven game winning streak, but they lost to Red Bank in the middle of a four-game losing streak. The Fliers have a high ceiling, which they'll have to reach to win its next game.



Ocean


Section: Central Jersey Group III
State Wins: Defeated No. 7 Lakewood 2-0.
Next Opponent: No. 2 Monmouth, Tuesday 2 p.m., at Monmouth Regional HS.
Chances This Game: I went over this game in Monmouth's breakdown. To reiterate, Ocean already gave Monmouth all it could handle in a 1-1 tie and is playing as well as it has all year, while Monmouth might need to work out some kinks. Monmouth is the better team, but Ocean is good enough to beat them if the Falcons don't come to play.
Chances Going Forward: Ocean has benefited greatly from getting into tournament play. They've played close games all year, and during tournament time, they've been forced to play for the win instead of settling for ties. The Spartans have quality wins over Rumson, Wall, and Lakewood, and took CBA into overtime before losing in the SCT. They have a tough road, but facing Princeton and Monroe would be even tougher. With all its rich soccer history, it's not beyond Ocean to end up in the finals.