Heat Check
#12 Marlboro (12-9) vs. #1 Howell (16-2-1)
Thursday, Oct. 25, 7 p.m., at Memorial Field, Neptune
It's tempting to call Marlboro the hottest team in the Shore right now. They've won eight of their last nine and 10 of their last 13, sneaked into the SCT on the cutoff day, and have downed #5 Toms River East and #4 CBA on the road to make it to Neptune. But can you even call them the hottest team on the field Thursday, when the team on the other side has lost once in their last 18 games, are undefeated in their last 10 games, and beat Marlboro twice, including a 2-0 win on Oct. 10? That's all up for debate, but it has little to no bearing on who will win when the two teams meet for a third time Thursday night. Let's take a look at what will matter.
Marlboro
Even coach Dave Santos and the Marlboro players mention luck the biggest factor in their team's turnaround. as they put it, they weren't playing bad early in the season, but rather just getting unlucky. Now that the bounces are going in their favor, the scores are starting to go in their favor as well.
That have had some good luck during this run, but that's not nearly the entire story. The most important personnel move Marlboro made was to move junior Alex DeJohn to sweeper, which has turned Marlboro from an average-to-below-average defensive team, to a very good one. The Mustangs were scoring goals even during their tough times, bit now the efforts of top scorers Mike Stone (11 goals) and Hunter Gorskie (eight goals, 13 assists) are going towards a winning cause rather than going to waste.
Offensively, Marlboro probably relied too much on Gorskie early in the season. Mike Stone got hot a few games into the year, the rest of the Marlboro team has gradually become more involved in the attack. During the SCT, Marlboro has scored six goals in three games, with four different players scoring. The kicker (pun intended) is that those two leading scorers (Gorskie and Stone) have not scored any of the six goals. The Mustangs main source of SCT scoring has been Mario Rangel, who only had two goals during the regular season. The sophomore opened the scoring in the SCT for Marlboro, and scored both goals during the PK win over Toms River East, including a perfect shot with 42 seconds left to send the game to overtime. Trailing CBA 1-0 on Tuesday, Jack Parkin came through with a shot to tie the game and Sam Weinberger converted a feed from Hunter Gorskie to win it. They are starting to score from all angles, much like their opponent Thursday night.
In its last two games, Marlboro showed an ability control possession, including against a CBA team that tries to do the same thing. TR East threw them off when they played a much more physical and much better defensive second half. The challenge for Marlboro Thursday will be to play their possession game against the best possession team in the Shore, while at the same time trying to maintain possession against an equally tough defense.
Howell
There were some rumblings lasat year about how Manalapan and Howell should have been on opposite sides of the bracket, and those rumblings were quieted when those two got the top two seeds. But Howell had to feel a little snubbed that they were looking at CBA for a third time if the seeds held up. The Rebels don't get CBA, but they do get another Class A North team that they have already seen twice, while Jackson gets a new opponent in Manalapan.
The third-time-is-a-charm rule came into play for Marloro against CBA, but does it against Howell? While the Mustangs played CBA tough in two losses, Howell beat them by a combined 6-0 in their two matches, 4-0 the first time and 2-0 the second time. Howell has done it in every facet of the game this year, scoring with their two superstars Cody Calafiore (12 goals, 13 assists) and Kyle Bethel (eight goals, six assists), getting scoring contributions from their role players, and playing some of the best defense in the Shore despite losing two of the area's best defenders to graduation in Mike Krol and Paul Calafiore.
The defense starts in the midfield, with Billy Kappock, who has filled Paul Calafiore's role as the team's top two-way player. Kappock has come up with four goals this year and is all over the field on most days. Matt Salvatore has replaced Krol as sweeper, and while he doesn't transition to the attack like Krol could, he has cleaned up nicely in the back. George DiCharo has been the stopper, shutting down George Quintano in two meetings with Manalapan and limiting Monmouth's Eric Mackin in the Rebels' quarterfinal win Tuesday. Brian McDonough doesn't see much action in goal, but when teams have penetrated the defense and got to McDonough, he's been up to the challenge.
EDIT: DiCharo - marking back, Kappock - stopper.
Most teams focus on Bethel when stopping the Howell attack. While that was easier to do when Bethel was hobbling around on a bum ankle, it hasn't been as easy as his health has improved. Even if the Mustangs can keep Bethel in check, Howell's offense runs through Calafiore and making life hard on him would be worse for Howell than if Bethel could not get free. Even so, both Calafiore and Bethel were quiet against Monmouth, and the Rebels prevailed. The defense is the key.
Last Word
We've seen the third-time-is-a-charm possibility come into play twice this SCT, and it's 1-for-2. Donovan beat Pinelands for a third time, but CBA couldn't beat Marlboro for a third. For Marlboro to pull it off again, they are going to need a little bit of help. Howell's losses this year have not come from getting outplayed or getting sloppy, but just flat-out not finishing. Their defense is very good, but not dominant and they can be beat. Marlboro will need to disrupt the flow of Howell's possessions and they'll need the Rebels to help them out by missing the chances that their offense will invariably create. I actually like the chances of that happening, because, Marlboro is playing so loose right now and Howell looks tight at times, which can lead to forcing the issue at times.
I might have picked Marlboro if I didn't watch Howell come back to tie Manalapan during their Oct. 3 deadlock. In the game, Howell erased a 2-0 deficit to come away with a tie against a team that looked like it had a real mental edge on them. But this Howell team is on a mission and I think they've moved on from the disappointment of last year's SCT semifinal loss to Manalapan. There are teams out there that can beat Howell, but I don't think there are many that can beat them on this night, and that includes Marlboro.
The Pick: Howell 2-0 .
Question of the Game
Thursday, Oct. 25, 7 p.m., at Memorial Field, Neptune
It's tempting to call Marlboro the hottest team in the Shore right now. They've won eight of their last nine and 10 of their last 13, sneaked into the SCT on the cutoff day, and have downed #5 Toms River East and #4 CBA on the road to make it to Neptune. But can you even call them the hottest team on the field Thursday, when the team on the other side has lost once in their last 18 games, are undefeated in their last 10 games, and beat Marlboro twice, including a 2-0 win on Oct. 10? That's all up for debate, but it has little to no bearing on who will win when the two teams meet for a third time Thursday night. Let's take a look at what will matter.
Marlboro
Even coach Dave Santos and the Marlboro players mention luck the biggest factor in their team's turnaround. as they put it, they weren't playing bad early in the season, but rather just getting unlucky. Now that the bounces are going in their favor, the scores are starting to go in their favor as well.
That have had some good luck during this run, but that's not nearly the entire story. The most important personnel move Marlboro made was to move junior Alex DeJohn to sweeper, which has turned Marlboro from an average-to-below-average defensive team, to a very good one. The Mustangs were scoring goals even during their tough times, bit now the efforts of top scorers Mike Stone (11 goals) and Hunter Gorskie (eight goals, 13 assists) are going towards a winning cause rather than going to waste.
Offensively, Marlboro probably relied too much on Gorskie early in the season. Mike Stone got hot a few games into the year, the rest of the Marlboro team has gradually become more involved in the attack. During the SCT, Marlboro has scored six goals in three games, with four different players scoring. The kicker (pun intended) is that those two leading scorers (Gorskie and Stone) have not scored any of the six goals. The Mustangs main source of SCT scoring has been Mario Rangel, who only had two goals during the regular season. The sophomore opened the scoring in the SCT for Marlboro, and scored both goals during the PK win over Toms River East, including a perfect shot with 42 seconds left to send the game to overtime. Trailing CBA 1-0 on Tuesday, Jack Parkin came through with a shot to tie the game and Sam Weinberger converted a feed from Hunter Gorskie to win it. They are starting to score from all angles, much like their opponent Thursday night.
In its last two games, Marlboro showed an ability control possession, including against a CBA team that tries to do the same thing. TR East threw them off when they played a much more physical and much better defensive second half. The challenge for Marlboro Thursday will be to play their possession game against the best possession team in the Shore, while at the same time trying to maintain possession against an equally tough defense.
Howell
There were some rumblings lasat year about how Manalapan and Howell should have been on opposite sides of the bracket, and those rumblings were quieted when those two got the top two seeds. But Howell had to feel a little snubbed that they were looking at CBA for a third time if the seeds held up. The Rebels don't get CBA, but they do get another Class A North team that they have already seen twice, while Jackson gets a new opponent in Manalapan.
The third-time-is-a-charm rule came into play for Marloro against CBA, but does it against Howell? While the Mustangs played CBA tough in two losses, Howell beat them by a combined 6-0 in their two matches, 4-0 the first time and 2-0 the second time. Howell has done it in every facet of the game this year, scoring with their two superstars Cody Calafiore (12 goals, 13 assists) and Kyle Bethel (eight goals, six assists), getting scoring contributions from their role players, and playing some of the best defense in the Shore despite losing two of the area's best defenders to graduation in Mike Krol and Paul Calafiore.
The defense starts in the midfield, with Billy Kappock, who has filled Paul Calafiore's role as the team's top two-way player. Kappock has come up with four goals this year and is all over the field on most days. Matt Salvatore has replaced Krol as sweeper, and while he doesn't transition to the attack like Krol could, he has cleaned up nicely in the back. George DiCharo has been the stopper, shutting down George Quintano in two meetings with Manalapan and limiting Monmouth's Eric Mackin in the Rebels' quarterfinal win Tuesday. Brian McDonough doesn't see much action in goal, but when teams have penetrated the defense and got to McDonough, he's been up to the challenge.
EDIT: DiCharo - marking back, Kappock - stopper.
Most teams focus on Bethel when stopping the Howell attack. While that was easier to do when Bethel was hobbling around on a bum ankle, it hasn't been as easy as his health has improved. Even if the Mustangs can keep Bethel in check, Howell's offense runs through Calafiore and making life hard on him would be worse for Howell than if Bethel could not get free. Even so, both Calafiore and Bethel were quiet against Monmouth, and the Rebels prevailed. The defense is the key.
Last Word
We've seen the third-time-is-a-charm possibility come into play twice this SCT, and it's 1-for-2. Donovan beat Pinelands for a third time, but CBA couldn't beat Marlboro for a third. For Marlboro to pull it off again, they are going to need a little bit of help. Howell's losses this year have not come from getting outplayed or getting sloppy, but just flat-out not finishing. Their defense is very good, but not dominant and they can be beat. Marlboro will need to disrupt the flow of Howell's possessions and they'll need the Rebels to help them out by missing the chances that their offense will invariably create. I actually like the chances of that happening, because, Marlboro is playing so loose right now and Howell looks tight at times, which can lead to forcing the issue at times.
I might have picked Marlboro if I didn't watch Howell come back to tie Manalapan during their Oct. 3 deadlock. In the game, Howell erased a 2-0 deficit to come away with a tie against a team that looked like it had a real mental edge on them. But this Howell team is on a mission and I think they've moved on from the disappointment of last year's SCT semifinal loss to Manalapan. There are teams out there that can beat Howell, but I don't think there are many that can beat them on this night, and that includes Marlboro.
The Pick: Howell 2-0 .
Question of the Game
posted by Matt Manley at 4:56 PM
2 Comments:
Matt,
Good analysis. Some corrections, however. Carbone and O'Neill are Howell's midfielders. Kappock is the stopper and DiCharo is the left fullback.
Yea, good catch. DiCharo is their best marking back, but I wrote stopper.
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