SCT Round of 16
Blogger.com is killing me right now. Errors keep popping up and deleting my work, like the breakdown of the Shore-Freehold Twp. game I did yesterday. I'm losing my patience, so the analysis on each game will be much shorter than it was supposed to be. I'm also trying something new with the polls. Let's get right to it.
#11 Freehold Twp. (9-7-1) at #6 Monsignor Donovan (15-2)
Freehold Twp. looked good in the second half Thursday against Shore. They're going to have to be just as good to knock off the Shore's hottest team. Nick Composto, Bobby Searby, and Connor Egan up fron t will be the x-factors. If they can run around at will and finish, Brenden Noeges and Ryan Clark can get them the ball. Donovan's defense is the second-best in the Shore with 0.47 gapg, but this is the most talented team they've seen so far. It's going out on a limb, but I see this one going to penalty kicks, in which case I'll take Kyle Milana and Mon Don.
The Pick: Donovan 3-2.
#9 Brick (9-6-2) at #8 Monmouth (11-3-2)
If Tiago Dutra (hamstring) can play and play somewhat effectively, I see this as a bad matchup for Brick. The Dragons' strength lies in its skill in the midfield and the back, and Dutra can somewhat neutralize that strength. They are also one of the smaller teams I've seen, and I have a hard time believeing they'll be able to disrupt Eric Mackin.
The Pick: Monmouth 3-1.
# 16 Manasquan (11-3-1) at #1 Howell (14-2-1)
Manasquan has allowed more than one goal in a game just once this year in a 2-1 loss to Red Bank on Sept. 18. They play with four defenders, led by Ben Tumas, and they play a safe brand of soccer. That might keep this game from getting ugly on the scoreboard, but no team has kept Howell off the board this year, and that's what Manasquan is going to have to do to win while still playing their style. Howell won't dominate on the scoreboard, but they will on the field.
The Pick: Howell 2-0
#15 Central (11-3-1) at # 2 Manalapan (12-2-2)
Without Clay Gashlin in its first six games, Central was a scrappy, defensive team. Now with Gashlin back, they are a scrappy defensive team with a lethal scorer. Manalapan, meanwhile, has taken no prisoners over its last five games, outscoring its opponents 21-2 with a scoreless tie against Middletown North mixed in. Gashlin will cause some problems for a Manalapan defense that is just starting to find itself, but the Braves will be ready to start their SCT title defense.
The Pick: Manalapan 4-1.
#14 Red Bank (10-4) at #3 Jackson Memorial (12-3-2)
Red Bank won its first ever division title, but the Bucs' only win outside of A Central this year came against Mater Dei. Their other two games against non-A Central teams were losses to Rumson and Marlboro. Jackson is the best defensive team in the Shore, they have the best goalkeeper in the Shore in Alex Morgans, and they also might be the most athletic. Red Bank has some legitimate skill, but it takes a lot of skill to beat Jackson and Red Bank already had trouble with a big Marlboro team. Jackson struggles to finish sometimes, and they'll have to if Red Bank is to have a chance.
The Pick: Jackson 3-0.
#20 Ocean (6-5-5) at #4 CBA (10-4-1)
This one has the makings of a good game. In CBA's 15 games, 10 were decided by a goal and one ended in a tie. As you can tell by their five ties, the Spartans like close games too. The difference is, CBA has thrived in the close games, whereas Ocean has simply avoided losing. Ocean's win over Rumson in round one was its first in a month. They might have to wait until next year to win another. Close game, but the Colts prevail.
The Pick: CBA 3-2.
#12 Marlboro (10-9) at #5 Toms River East (11-4-1)
Toms River East had a tough time with its only Class A North opponent this year, and that was Colts Neck, who did not make the SCT. Marlboro, meanwhile outlasted Brick Memorial 1-0 in its only meeting with A South. This looks like it's going to be a 1-0 game one way or the other, with some great matchups in between, particularly Hunter Gorskie vs. Brandon Zeller. It's hard to pick against a team as hot as Marlboro, but it's hard to pick against TR East in a big game at home under the lights. This one is a toss-up. I'm going with the home team.
The Pick: TR East 1-0.
#10 Middletown North (8-7-1) at #7 Toms River South (11-5)
The Lions have played well of late, but they have not beaten any of the top nine seeds this year, although they've had chances. On the plus-side, they probably prevented Freehold Township from getting a top-10 seed by beating them twice, and are the only team that has played Manalapan lately without trailing at any point in the game. Middltown North plays mistake free on most days, and Toms River South will test them as much as any team they've played. The Indians have been inconsistent at times, and if they can't keep Midd. North off the board early, they may have trouble getting their attack going against the Lions. I'll ride the Indians for one more round.
The Pick: TR South 2-1.
#11 Freehold Twp. (9-7-1) at #6 Monsignor Donovan (15-2)
Freehold Twp. looked good in the second half Thursday against Shore. They're going to have to be just as good to knock off the Shore's hottest team. Nick Composto, Bobby Searby, and Connor Egan up fron t will be the x-factors. If they can run around at will and finish, Brenden Noeges and Ryan Clark can get them the ball. Donovan's defense is the second-best in the Shore with 0.47 gapg, but this is the most talented team they've seen so far. It's going out on a limb, but I see this one going to penalty kicks, in which case I'll take Kyle Milana and Mon Don.
The Pick: Donovan 3-2.
#9 Brick (9-6-2) at #8 Monmouth (11-3-2)
If Tiago Dutra (hamstring) can play and play somewhat effectively, I see this as a bad matchup for Brick. The Dragons' strength lies in its skill in the midfield and the back, and Dutra can somewhat neutralize that strength. They are also one of the smaller teams I've seen, and I have a hard time believeing they'll be able to disrupt Eric Mackin.
The Pick: Monmouth 3-1.
# 16 Manasquan (11-3-1) at #1 Howell (14-2-1)
Manasquan has allowed more than one goal in a game just once this year in a 2-1 loss to Red Bank on Sept. 18. They play with four defenders, led by Ben Tumas, and they play a safe brand of soccer. That might keep this game from getting ugly on the scoreboard, but no team has kept Howell off the board this year, and that's what Manasquan is going to have to do to win while still playing their style. Howell won't dominate on the scoreboard, but they will on the field.
The Pick: Howell 2-0
#15 Central (11-3-1) at # 2 Manalapan (12-2-2)
Without Clay Gashlin in its first six games, Central was a scrappy, defensive team. Now with Gashlin back, they are a scrappy defensive team with a lethal scorer. Manalapan, meanwhile, has taken no prisoners over its last five games, outscoring its opponents 21-2 with a scoreless tie against Middletown North mixed in. Gashlin will cause some problems for a Manalapan defense that is just starting to find itself, but the Braves will be ready to start their SCT title defense.
The Pick: Manalapan 4-1.
#14 Red Bank (10-4) at #3 Jackson Memorial (12-3-2)
Red Bank won its first ever division title, but the Bucs' only win outside of A Central this year came against Mater Dei. Their other two games against non-A Central teams were losses to Rumson and Marlboro. Jackson is the best defensive team in the Shore, they have the best goalkeeper in the Shore in Alex Morgans, and they also might be the most athletic. Red Bank has some legitimate skill, but it takes a lot of skill to beat Jackson and Red Bank already had trouble with a big Marlboro team. Jackson struggles to finish sometimes, and they'll have to if Red Bank is to have a chance.
The Pick: Jackson 3-0.
#20 Ocean (6-5-5) at #4 CBA (10-4-1)
This one has the makings of a good game. In CBA's 15 games, 10 were decided by a goal and one ended in a tie. As you can tell by their five ties, the Spartans like close games too. The difference is, CBA has thrived in the close games, whereas Ocean has simply avoided losing. Ocean's win over Rumson in round one was its first in a month. They might have to wait until next year to win another. Close game, but the Colts prevail.
The Pick: CBA 3-2.
#12 Marlboro (10-9) at #5 Toms River East (11-4-1)
Toms River East had a tough time with its only Class A North opponent this year, and that was Colts Neck, who did not make the SCT. Marlboro, meanwhile outlasted Brick Memorial 1-0 in its only meeting with A South. This looks like it's going to be a 1-0 game one way or the other, with some great matchups in between, particularly Hunter Gorskie vs. Brandon Zeller. It's hard to pick against a team as hot as Marlboro, but it's hard to pick against TR East in a big game at home under the lights. This one is a toss-up. I'm going with the home team.
The Pick: TR East 1-0.
#10 Middletown North (8-7-1) at #7 Toms River South (11-5)
The Lions have played well of late, but they have not beaten any of the top nine seeds this year, although they've had chances. On the plus-side, they probably prevented Freehold Township from getting a top-10 seed by beating them twice, and are the only team that has played Manalapan lately without trailing at any point in the game. Middltown North plays mistake free on most days, and Toms River South will test them as much as any team they've played. The Indians have been inconsistent at times, and if they can't keep Midd. North off the board early, they may have trouble getting their attack going against the Lions. I'll ride the Indians for one more round.
The Pick: TR South 2-1.
posted by Matt Manley at 3:17 PM
5 Comments:
Matt, Would like to see your breakdown of the Shore Freehold twp game. Was a good game up until the 70th Min. What were your thoughts?
Matt- How come no high scorers this week in Rally section of APP?
Good analysis of games!
I give my editors the scorers the high scorers every week, but they don't always run them for whatever reason. From what I'm told, they'll run Sunday. If they change their mind again, I'll post them tonight, hopefully before I head down to Toms River East.
Matt, I think you mean Middletown North not South. Good job on the analysis.
Yea I actually notice it just before you posted. It should be correct now.
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