My SCT Seeds
There are a number of Monday games that could have implications on the seeds, including who makes the tournament. I'll rank the seeds as if all 28 teams that can make it, do make it, but first, here's a look at Monday's slate of SCT-relevant games.
Brick at Howell, 3:45 p.m.
Middletown North at Jackson Mem., 3:45 p.m.
TR East at Colts Neck, 3:45 p.m.
TR South at Point Boro, 3:45 p.m.
TR North at Wall, 3:45 p.m.
Monsignor Donovan at St. Rose, 3:45 p.m.
Monmouth at Southern, 3:45 p.m.
Raritan at Midd. South, 3:45 p.m.
Ocean at Shore, 4 p.m.
Henry Hudson at Point Beach, 4 p.m.
Manasquan at RBC, 4 p.m.
Red Bank at Marlboro, 4 p.m.
For symmetry's sake, I'm going to assume all 28 teams that can get in, do get it. So here's how the 28 teams should look, including some extra insight to the four teams with byes:
1. Howell (12-2-1)
Why they're here: 11-2-1 in, probably, the toughest of the Shore Conference's six divisions; 5-2-1 against SCT qualifiers; outshot opponents in losses (Freehold Twp. and Colts Neck).
Why they might not be here: Hard to find any reason they shouldn't be the top seed. They have not lost to Manalapan, but their two losses came against teams (Freehold Twp. and Colts Neck) with a combined 12-17-1 record.
2. Manalapan (10-2-2)
Why the're here: 8-0-2 in their last 10 games; 4-2-2 against SCT teams; Proven SCT squad after winning last year's SCT and Group IV championships.
Why they might not be here: Ugly losses to Howell (4-0) and CBA (6-2). Have not beaten Howell this year.
3. Jackson Memorial (11-3-2)
Why they are here: Won a very tough Class A South; 4-3-1 against SCT teams; Like Howell, played tough in their losses (opposition scored GWG in final 10 minutes of play in all three).
Why they might not be here: Did not beat Toms River East in either of their two meetings.
4. Toms River East (9-4-1)
Why they are here: Also 4-3-1 in Class A South, and beat Jackson twice. Defeated each A South team at least once. Won seven straight at one point after a 2-2 start.
Why they might not be here: 0-2-1 in their last three games, including a loss to Lacey (5-10-1); There is a perception that A North is tougher than A South and that might hurt the Raiders when comparing them to CBA. This is going to be a heated debate if there are only four byes available and should be pretty intense anyway.
5. CBA (10-4-1)
Good Wins: Manalapan, Midd. North (twice).
Bad Losses: None.
Synopsis: After beating Manalapan 6-2 on opening day, the Colts have not had any signature wins, and haven't shown enough signs of improvement. They are only 3-4-1 against SCT teams and only 1-4-1 against Howell, Freehold Twp., and Manalapan. TR East beats them out with a slightly better resume.
6. Monsignor Donovan (13-2)
Good Wins: TR North, Lacey, SJV, Central, Point Boro, Lakewood (twice).
Bad Losses: Central and Point Boro.
Synopsis: How can Central and Point Boro be both good wins and bad losses, you ask? Why is Lacey a good win for Mon Don and a bad loss for TR East and TR South, you wonder? Simply put, when you come out of any of the B Divisions, you have to win your division games, and any loss you take hurts your resume more than a division loss for an A South or A North team. On the other hand, any win you can get out of division is huge because it can legitimize both your team and your division. Mon Don is indeed legitimate and I'd argue that they could have competed for an A South title if they were in that division. Plus, 10 wins in a row deserves some recognition.
7. Toms River South
Good Wins: Jackson, TR East, TR North, Brick.
Bad Losses: Lacey.
Synopsis: TR South is another A South team to beat every other A South team at least once. That makes them as unreliable as it does impressive. Yes, they beat TR East and Lacey in rematches, but they could not beat Jackson, Brick, and TR North the second time around. They've also had to eek out wins late, but that could be as much a credit as it is a detractor.
8. Rumson-Fair Haven (11-1-1)
Good Wins: Red Bank, Shore (twice).
Bad Losses: SJV.
Synopsis: Again, any loss is bad for a team from B Central because of the constant struggle for credibility. However, in this case, I'm throwing Rumson a bone for going undefeated in their division and getting a nice win over a good, albeit depleted Red Bank team. The Bulldogs have been unbeatable when Sean Pahler's healthy so I'll give them the nod over some of the A South/A North teams with more losses.
9. Brick (8-5-2)
Good Wins: Jackson, TR East, TR South, TR North.
Bad Losses: Brick Mem., Point Boro (tie), Lacey (tie).
Synopsis: Brick Mem. isn't a terrible loss, but they aren't a tournament team so it should be mentioned. The Dragons are the third team with wins over every team in A South and they can certainly make a case for a home game in the round of 16. Comparing them to Rumson is pointless right now, but they could argue for TRS's seventh spot, with Brick's bad games looking a little better than those of the Indians. At the end of the day, I though TRS was the better team and they finished ahead of Brick in the division. They can move up with a win over Howell.
10. Red Bank (9-3)
Good Wins: Manasquan, SJV, Holmdel (twice)
Bad Losses: Manasquan
Synopsis: The Bucs were banged up against Rumson and SJV earlier in the year and the loss to Squan is only bad because it is recent. I don't think a win over Marlboro today gets them any higher, but a loss might be a little more damaging.
11. Manasquan (9-3-1)
Good Wins: Red Bank, SJV, Point Boro, Holmdel (twice).
Bad Losses: Raritan, RBC.
Synopsis: The RBC loss hurts, but for the most part, Manasquan made up for their early-season inconsistencies with a good win over Red Bank. The Warriors have kept people out of the net, allowing just six goals in 13 games this year.
12. Central (10-3-1)
Good Wins: Donovan, Lakewood, Point Boro, Lacey.
Bad Losses: Pinelands, Lakewood.
Synopsis: Kind of a sleeper here, but Central has a better resume than Monmouth and a good enough record to go ahead of the near-.500 A North/A South schools. The win over Mon Don is big, plus the win over a Lacey team fighting for the playoffs looks good too. Manasquan's decisive victory over Point Boro gives them the nod over Central.
13. Monmouth(9-3-2)
Good Wins: Neptune, Ocean, Wall (twice).
Bad Losses: Long Branch, Marlboro, Freehold (tie).
Synopsis: If not for the fact that they won B North, the Falcons would probably slip to the 15 seed. The loss to Marlboro is bad for the legitamacy of B North as a whole, but Wall got some of that back with a tie against Midd. North. This is a tough team to read right now.
14. Neptune (9-5)
Good Wins: Monmouth, Ocean (twice), Wall.
Bad Losses: Matawan, Freehold.
Synopsis: One of the hotter teams in the Shore (seven straight wins before losing to Hamilton West) would go ahead of Monmouth if it wasn't for a division title. They have played well enough to get priority over Midd. North, TR North, and Freehold Twp.
15. SJ Vianney (8-4-2)
Good Wins: Red Bank, Rumson-FH, Holmdel.
Bad Losses: Holmdel, Raritan (tie).
Synopsis: SJV started 4-0 but have levelled off a bit. Wins over Red Bank and Rumson look very good right now, which, along with their record, keeps them ahead of some other teams.
16. Midd. North (7-6-2)
Good Wins: Freehold Twp. (twice), Manalapan (tie)
Bad Losses: Wall (tie), Marlboro.
Synopsis: Losing to Marlboro doesn't look bad by itself, but losing to anyone 8-2 is bad. They don't have the quality wins that Freehold Twp. does, but there's no way you can rank the Pats ahead of them when Midd. North beat them twice.
17. Freehold Twp. (7-7-1)
Good Wins: Howell, CBA, CBA (tie).
Bad Losses: Manalapan, Marlboro, Freehold.
Synopsis: The Patriots last four games are very troubling. They lost to Midd. North for the second time this year, fell to a hot Marlboro team, lost 6-1 to Manalapan, and lost to a Freehold team with three wins this year. If they were playing Neptune Monday, they might not even be in the field. On the good side, they are the only SCT-eligible team with a win over Howell.
18. Toms River North (8-7)
Good Wins: TR East, TR South, Brick.
Bad Losses: Brick Mem.
Synopsis: The M's are healthier now, and their loss to Mon Don validates the Griffins more than it hurts TRN. They didn't get a win over Jackson this year, but they have some nice wins in A South to beef up their resume and no really bad losses. A loss to Wall Monday could hurt them.
19. Marlboro (8-9)*
Good Wins: Freehold Twp., Midd. North, Monmouth.
Bad Losses: Colts Neck.
Synopsis: This is, of course, assuming they beat Red Bank, which would add a quality win to their list. Marlboro started 2-6 and could stop anyone, but have since moved Alex DeJohn to sweeper and are 6-3 their last nine games heading into the Red Bank game.
20. Holmdel (7-5-1)
Good Wins: SJV.
Bad Losses: Raritan (tie).
Synopsis: No great wins, no cripppling losses and a hot team (5-1 in last six games). They are ahead of Shore based on Shore losing to Raritan.
21. Wall (6-5-4)
Good Wins: Neptune, Brick Mem., Midd. North (tie).
Bad Losses: Long Branch.
Synopsis: Good win over Neptune early in the year and a nice win over an A South team in Brick Mem. If some of those ties were wins they'd be in better shape, but then again if they were losses, they wouldn't even be here.
22. Point Boro (7-5-3)
Good Wins: Monsignor Donovan, Lakewood, Brick (tie).
Bad Losses: Pinelands (tie).
Synopsis: The Panthers had trouble handling Pinelands this year, and the tie is actually worse than the loss considering Pinelands has missed Antonio Scotto Di Carlo with a leg injury. The win over Mon Don and the win over Lakewood Friday puts them ahead of the Piners.
23. Lakewood (7-5)
Good Wins: Central, Point Boro.
Bad Losses: Pinelands.
Synopsis: The Piners have a nice win over Central, but have not been able to find any consitency, as evidenced by their 7-5 record. Their win over Central puts them ahead of Shore.
24. Shore (9-5)
Good Wins: Point Beach.
Bad Losses: Point Beach, Colts Neck, Raritan.
Synopsis: There just aren't any good wins to justify moving them any higher. They play teams tough, and they have some major injuries, but the resume is less than impressive.
25. Raritan (5-5-2)
Good Wins: Manasquan, Shore.
Bad Losses: None.
Synopsis: The Rockets have a couple of nice wins and are headed in the right direction. They jump Shore if the Devils lose to Ocean Monday.
26. Ocean (5-5-4)
Good Wins: Wall, Monmouth (tie).
Bad Losses: Long Branch, Freehold (tie), Matawan (tie).
Synopsis: Won five straight to open the season and haven't won since. They need to beat Shore to get in, which would help the quality of their wins, but not much.
27. Pinelands (7-4-2)
Good Wins: Point Boro, Lakewood, Central.
Bad Losses: Manchester (tie).
Synopsis: Three nice wins and a 5-1 start had the Cats rolling but an injury to Antonio Scotto Di Carlo has Pinelands 2-3-2 in their last five.
28. Point Beach (9-6)
Good Wins: Shore.
Bad Losses: St. Rose.
Synopsis: Nice win over Shore is really all Point Beach has to speak of. Playing in the same division as Henry Hudson, Mater Dei, and Asbury Park really hurts these B Central teams. They made a nice effort to play some good teams out of their division (Manasquan, Monmouth).
Brick at Howell, 3:45 p.m.
Middletown North at Jackson Mem., 3:45 p.m.
TR East at Colts Neck, 3:45 p.m.
TR South at Point Boro, 3:45 p.m.
TR North at Wall, 3:45 p.m.
Monsignor Donovan at St. Rose, 3:45 p.m.
Monmouth at Southern, 3:45 p.m.
Raritan at Midd. South, 3:45 p.m.
Ocean at Shore, 4 p.m.
Henry Hudson at Point Beach, 4 p.m.
Manasquan at RBC, 4 p.m.
Red Bank at Marlboro, 4 p.m.
For symmetry's sake, I'm going to assume all 28 teams that can get in, do get it. So here's how the 28 teams should look, including some extra insight to the four teams with byes:
1. Howell (12-2-1)
Why they're here: 11-2-1 in, probably, the toughest of the Shore Conference's six divisions; 5-2-1 against SCT qualifiers; outshot opponents in losses (Freehold Twp. and Colts Neck).
Why they might not be here: Hard to find any reason they shouldn't be the top seed. They have not lost to Manalapan, but their two losses came against teams (Freehold Twp. and Colts Neck) with a combined 12-17-1 record.
2. Manalapan (10-2-2)
Why the're here: 8-0-2 in their last 10 games; 4-2-2 against SCT teams; Proven SCT squad after winning last year's SCT and Group IV championships.
Why they might not be here: Ugly losses to Howell (4-0) and CBA (6-2). Have not beaten Howell this year.
3. Jackson Memorial (11-3-2)
Why they are here: Won a very tough Class A South; 4-3-1 against SCT teams; Like Howell, played tough in their losses (opposition scored GWG in final 10 minutes of play in all three).
Why they might not be here: Did not beat Toms River East in either of their two meetings.
4. Toms River East (9-4-1)
Why they are here: Also 4-3-1 in Class A South, and beat Jackson twice. Defeated each A South team at least once. Won seven straight at one point after a 2-2 start.
Why they might not be here: 0-2-1 in their last three games, including a loss to Lacey (5-10-1); There is a perception that A North is tougher than A South and that might hurt the Raiders when comparing them to CBA. This is going to be a heated debate if there are only four byes available and should be pretty intense anyway.
5. CBA (10-4-1)
Good Wins: Manalapan, Midd. North (twice).
Bad Losses: None.
Synopsis: After beating Manalapan 6-2 on opening day, the Colts have not had any signature wins, and haven't shown enough signs of improvement. They are only 3-4-1 against SCT teams and only 1-4-1 against Howell, Freehold Twp., and Manalapan. TR East beats them out with a slightly better resume.
6. Monsignor Donovan (13-2)
Good Wins: TR North, Lacey, SJV, Central, Point Boro, Lakewood (twice).
Bad Losses: Central and Point Boro.
Synopsis: How can Central and Point Boro be both good wins and bad losses, you ask? Why is Lacey a good win for Mon Don and a bad loss for TR East and TR South, you wonder? Simply put, when you come out of any of the B Divisions, you have to win your division games, and any loss you take hurts your resume more than a division loss for an A South or A North team. On the other hand, any win you can get out of division is huge because it can legitimize both your team and your division. Mon Don is indeed legitimate and I'd argue that they could have competed for an A South title if they were in that division. Plus, 10 wins in a row deserves some recognition.
7. Toms River South
Good Wins: Jackson, TR East, TR North, Brick.
Bad Losses: Lacey.
Synopsis: TR South is another A South team to beat every other A South team at least once. That makes them as unreliable as it does impressive. Yes, they beat TR East and Lacey in rematches, but they could not beat Jackson, Brick, and TR North the second time around. They've also had to eek out wins late, but that could be as much a credit as it is a detractor.
8. Rumson-Fair Haven (11-1-1)
Good Wins: Red Bank, Shore (twice).
Bad Losses: SJV.
Synopsis: Again, any loss is bad for a team from B Central because of the constant struggle for credibility. However, in this case, I'm throwing Rumson a bone for going undefeated in their division and getting a nice win over a good, albeit depleted Red Bank team. The Bulldogs have been unbeatable when Sean Pahler's healthy so I'll give them the nod over some of the A South/A North teams with more losses.
9. Brick (8-5-2)
Good Wins: Jackson, TR East, TR South, TR North.
Bad Losses: Brick Mem., Point Boro (tie), Lacey (tie).
Synopsis: Brick Mem. isn't a terrible loss, but they aren't a tournament team so it should be mentioned. The Dragons are the third team with wins over every team in A South and they can certainly make a case for a home game in the round of 16. Comparing them to Rumson is pointless right now, but they could argue for TRS's seventh spot, with Brick's bad games looking a little better than those of the Indians. At the end of the day, I though TRS was the better team and they finished ahead of Brick in the division. They can move up with a win over Howell.
10. Red Bank (9-3)
Good Wins: Manasquan, SJV, Holmdel (twice)
Bad Losses: Manasquan
Synopsis: The Bucs were banged up against Rumson and SJV earlier in the year and the loss to Squan is only bad because it is recent. I don't think a win over Marlboro today gets them any higher, but a loss might be a little more damaging.
11. Manasquan (9-3-1)
Good Wins: Red Bank, SJV, Point Boro, Holmdel (twice).
Bad Losses: Raritan, RBC.
Synopsis: The RBC loss hurts, but for the most part, Manasquan made up for their early-season inconsistencies with a good win over Red Bank. The Warriors have kept people out of the net, allowing just six goals in 13 games this year.
12. Central (10-3-1)
Good Wins: Donovan, Lakewood, Point Boro, Lacey.
Bad Losses: Pinelands, Lakewood.
Synopsis: Kind of a sleeper here, but Central has a better resume than Monmouth and a good enough record to go ahead of the near-.500 A North/A South schools. The win over Mon Don is big, plus the win over a Lacey team fighting for the playoffs looks good too. Manasquan's decisive victory over Point Boro gives them the nod over Central.
13. Monmouth(9-3-2)
Good Wins: Neptune, Ocean, Wall (twice).
Bad Losses: Long Branch, Marlboro, Freehold (tie).
Synopsis: If not for the fact that they won B North, the Falcons would probably slip to the 15 seed. The loss to Marlboro is bad for the legitamacy of B North as a whole, but Wall got some of that back with a tie against Midd. North. This is a tough team to read right now.
14. Neptune (9-5)
Good Wins: Monmouth, Ocean (twice), Wall.
Bad Losses: Matawan, Freehold.
Synopsis: One of the hotter teams in the Shore (seven straight wins before losing to Hamilton West) would go ahead of Monmouth if it wasn't for a division title. They have played well enough to get priority over Midd. North, TR North, and Freehold Twp.
15. SJ Vianney (8-4-2)
Good Wins: Red Bank, Rumson-FH, Holmdel.
Bad Losses: Holmdel, Raritan (tie).
Synopsis: SJV started 4-0 but have levelled off a bit. Wins over Red Bank and Rumson look very good right now, which, along with their record, keeps them ahead of some other teams.
16. Midd. North (7-6-2)
Good Wins: Freehold Twp. (twice), Manalapan (tie)
Bad Losses: Wall (tie), Marlboro.
Synopsis: Losing to Marlboro doesn't look bad by itself, but losing to anyone 8-2 is bad. They don't have the quality wins that Freehold Twp. does, but there's no way you can rank the Pats ahead of them when Midd. North beat them twice.
17. Freehold Twp. (7-7-1)
Good Wins: Howell, CBA, CBA (tie).
Bad Losses: Manalapan, Marlboro, Freehold.
Synopsis: The Patriots last four games are very troubling. They lost to Midd. North for the second time this year, fell to a hot Marlboro team, lost 6-1 to Manalapan, and lost to a Freehold team with three wins this year. If they were playing Neptune Monday, they might not even be in the field. On the good side, they are the only SCT-eligible team with a win over Howell.
18. Toms River North (8-7)
Good Wins: TR East, TR South, Brick.
Bad Losses: Brick Mem.
Synopsis: The M's are healthier now, and their loss to Mon Don validates the Griffins more than it hurts TRN. They didn't get a win over Jackson this year, but they have some nice wins in A South to beef up their resume and no really bad losses. A loss to Wall Monday could hurt them.
19. Marlboro (8-9)*
Good Wins: Freehold Twp., Midd. North, Monmouth.
Bad Losses: Colts Neck.
Synopsis: This is, of course, assuming they beat Red Bank, which would add a quality win to their list. Marlboro started 2-6 and could stop anyone, but have since moved Alex DeJohn to sweeper and are 6-3 their last nine games heading into the Red Bank game.
20. Holmdel (7-5-1)
Good Wins: SJV.
Bad Losses: Raritan (tie).
Synopsis: No great wins, no cripppling losses and a hot team (5-1 in last six games). They are ahead of Shore based on Shore losing to Raritan.
21. Wall (6-5-4)
Good Wins: Neptune, Brick Mem., Midd. North (tie).
Bad Losses: Long Branch.
Synopsis: Good win over Neptune early in the year and a nice win over an A South team in Brick Mem. If some of those ties were wins they'd be in better shape, but then again if they were losses, they wouldn't even be here.
22. Point Boro (7-5-3)
Good Wins: Monsignor Donovan, Lakewood, Brick (tie).
Bad Losses: Pinelands (tie).
Synopsis: The Panthers had trouble handling Pinelands this year, and the tie is actually worse than the loss considering Pinelands has missed Antonio Scotto Di Carlo with a leg injury. The win over Mon Don and the win over Lakewood Friday puts them ahead of the Piners.
23. Lakewood (7-5)
Good Wins: Central, Point Boro.
Bad Losses: Pinelands.
Synopsis: The Piners have a nice win over Central, but have not been able to find any consitency, as evidenced by their 7-5 record. Their win over Central puts them ahead of Shore.
24. Shore (9-5)
Good Wins: Point Beach.
Bad Losses: Point Beach, Colts Neck, Raritan.
Synopsis: There just aren't any good wins to justify moving them any higher. They play teams tough, and they have some major injuries, but the resume is less than impressive.
25. Raritan (5-5-2)
Good Wins: Manasquan, Shore.
Bad Losses: None.
Synopsis: The Rockets have a couple of nice wins and are headed in the right direction. They jump Shore if the Devils lose to Ocean Monday.
26. Ocean (5-5-4)
Good Wins: Wall, Monmouth (tie).
Bad Losses: Long Branch, Freehold (tie), Matawan (tie).
Synopsis: Won five straight to open the season and haven't won since. They need to beat Shore to get in, which would help the quality of their wins, but not much.
27. Pinelands (7-4-2)
Good Wins: Point Boro, Lakewood, Central.
Bad Losses: Manchester (tie).
Synopsis: Three nice wins and a 5-1 start had the Cats rolling but an injury to Antonio Scotto Di Carlo has Pinelands 2-3-2 in their last five.
28. Point Beach (9-6)
Good Wins: Shore.
Bad Losses: St. Rose.
Synopsis: Nice win over Shore is really all Point Beach has to speak of. Playing in the same division as Henry Hudson, Mater Dei, and Asbury Park really hurts these B Central teams. They made a nice effort to play some good teams out of their division (Manasquan, Monmouth).
posted by Matt Manley at 6:57 PM
6 Comments:
Freehold Township 3 - Neptune 2
FT should be back in the 12-14 range and Neptune is down in the 17-20 area.
highschoolsports.net was wrong on this one
Ft should def move up but Nep should not move down that much. They have a decent resume and the FT game today could have gone either way
Nice analysis. You get the big picture with Teams like Marlboro. Very nice.
Matt, Sounds like your in love with Pahler.
Well Rumson is actually unbeaten with Pahler on the field.
Rumson is probably not better than a good number of teams that I ranked behind them, but their 12-1-1 record has to mean something. Then Again they are only 6-1-1 if you take out Hudson, Mater Dei, and Asbury.
Matt, Ive seen Rumson play twice now, and they have a couple of quality players. I dont know there names numbers 19 left striker & number 5 in the mid.
Both very strong players as well.
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